小资女向前冲（大马股市）

  看到很多前辈和大大讨论。

今天写Gkent主要的目的是要从他们身上学习如何分析一间公司。

不过在那之前，自己分析先^^

业务分析

- engineering and metering company specialising in the delivery of infrastructure projects like water treatment plants, rail transportation and hospitals, as well as the manufacturing and trading of water-related products.

FS 分析

- 第三季度Revenue下跌25.9%

- 而Net profit 已经连续2个季度上涨,QOQ

• 2016Q2:RM20.513m:36.7%
• 2016Q3:RM23.742m:15.7%

- EPS也上升

- 2016第一季到至今第三季，盈利已经超过去年全年盈利 

• FY2017:RM59.262m (Q1-Q3)
• FY2016:RM50.289m (Q1-Q4)

- 净现金公司

股价分析

- 呈现上升趋势,higher high,higher low

- 股价在回调

- PE: 12.47

- Current Share price: RM2.92

- Resistance level: RM3.05

- 回调了30%

- 22 Nov 2016, 股价来到最高点RM3.05,PE 是大概是13

- 19/9/2016 Bonus Issue1:4

- 曾经有一段时间股价低过MV20,最近股价又再次回到MV20

 前辈/Financial institutions research

1) RH Research - https://www.facebook.com/rhresearch/

业务分析

- 涉及水表生意

- 其建筑部门主要包含两项收入，建筑工程和基础设施投资。

FS 分析

- 盈利按年按季分别增长97%和16% （盈利成长）

- GKENT也在这个季度建议派发2仙的股息。其FY17累积股息已达5仙，整年的股息有望超越FY16的7仙 （股息）

- GKENT和中国交通建设股份【CCCC】的联营公司获得总值RM1.01b的捷运 (MRT) 工程。在2016年11月，GKENT再获得公共工程局【JKR】颁发价值RM277.19m的工程，在雪兰莪丹绒加弄 (Tanjung Karang) 建设拥有150个床位的医院。这两项工程将额外提升GKENT手上订单至RM5.90b。这些订单预计可维持GKENT的收入至少5年以上。 （未来工程，贡献）

order book> estimate revenue> estimate cost margin> estimate net profit> no of share> EPS>share price

股价分析

- 总结，GKENT的未来盈利看涨。然而，本专页认为它目前的价位并非是个极佳的买入点。GKENT最乐观的上涨空间只是10-14%左右。对于已买入并握有成本优势的股友，GKENT可长期持有。但是，对于正打算买入追高的股友，请思考再思考。(买入点）

- GKENT目前的PE是11倍，最新季度FY16Q3盈利为历史新高的RM23.7m。假设它有能力在未来一年交出RM100m的盈利，以300.41m的股数计算，GKENT的每股潜在盈利是33.3仙。再以8-10倍的PE推算，它的每股潜在价值处在RM2.66-3.33之间，相等于10-14%的潜在涨幅。 （算未来合理股价）

2) M+online http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/MplusOnline/111216.jsp

业务分析

- construction and engineering segment contributes the bulk of GKent’s revenue, making up about 72.0%-80.0% of its revenue

FS 分析

- George Kent (M) Bhd’s 3QFY17 net profit jumped 96.7% Y.o.Y to RM23.7 mln, , against RM12.1 mln a year ago – mainly due to the stronger performance of both its engineering and metering division.  (YOY,reason)

- Going forward, the group expects to achieve a record year with about RM400.0 mln to RM500.0 mln worth of projects on the Ampang LRT line extension project, alongside the progression of the Mengkuang Dam expansion project - expected to be completed by 2017. The group also plans to tender for high value infrastructure engineering projects such as sewerage treatment projects totaling RM250.0 mln. （未来工程，贡献）

- GKent’s outstanding orderbook swelled to RM5.9 bln following the recent award of the MRT 2 system works package and the Tanjung Karang Hospital on a design and build basis. It expects a double digit three-year revenue and net profit CAGR of 11.2% and 44.9% respectively to RM485.5 mln and RM85.5 mln in 2018 （未来工程，贡献）

投资风险

- Risks to the group include project delays and fluctuation in the cost of raw materials, which could reduce margins, as well as the inability to replenish its projects after completion.

股价分析

- At this juncture, we think that GKent’s valuation offers a slight upside given that the group is trading at a forward PER of 12.5x in FY18, below its peers PER of 13.0x-16.0x.

3)HLInvest http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/hleresearch/111059.jsp

FS 分析

-9M earnings made up 94% of our full year forecast which is above our expectation. The surprise results were due to (i) stronger-than-expected engineering margins given continued VO works for the LRT extension and (ii) higher- than-projected JV contribution associated with LRT3 PDP. ( 未来盈利成长）

- With YTD job wins at RM771m, GKent’s orderbook stands at RM5.9bn. This translates to a superior cover ratio of 14.4x on FY16 construction revenue, the highest in our sector coverage

投资风险

-Any possible delays in the LRT3 would be the key risk.

股价分析

- In view of the strong results, we raise FY17 by 14% after incorporating higher engineering margins. FY18 earnings are increased by a smaller magnitude of 2% in view of potential margin normalisation next year (FY19 unchanged) (Forecasts)

-GKent is a key rail play with exposure to the LRT extension, LRT3 and MRT2. It also boasts solid financials with 3-year earnings CAGR of 28%, above industry ROE of 20.9% and net cash position of RM0.58/share (21% of market cap). (Rating)