I have extracted some information about perstim from Aboon Blogger to save my time on doing research
业务
- 马口铁制造（tinplate）
- 核心业务主要是从事牛奶罐制造
- 马口铁主要是用在生产罐头、罐装饮料、蚊油等产品上
- 我国唯一的马口铁制造商，在大马并没有其他的竞争者
Shareholders
- PERSTIM目前牢牢掌握在日本企业手中，而最大的股东则来自日本钢铁大厂JFE；至于公司的管理层里，也有半数董事是日本人
Business Segment
- Malaysia
- 出口至海外国家，包括印尼、菲律宾、越南、澳洲、印度、意大利等，海外业务贡献约20%销售量
Competitors
- 国内没有其他的竞争对手，却面对来自中国和韩国的竞争
Actually, after reviewing Perstim's IS, found out that this quarter's profit should be lower than last quarter. Due to other income.
As perstim involved in export business, and it is affected by Tin price.
I will go through exchange rate and Tin price.
Tin price (FY2016)
- Perstim mentioned that this quarter obtained a good result compared with preceeding year corresponding quarter, due to high sales volume and tin price.
Let's look back to Q4FY16 (Dec 16- March16). Noted that high tin price is better to Perstim
December 2015: Tin price USD14505
Jan 2016: Tin price USD14645
Feb 2016: Tin price USD15710
March 2016: Tin price USD 16585
Exchange Rate (2016)
As perstim involved in export as well, I will look to the past exchange rate too.
Jan 2016: 4.336135
Feb 2016: 4.175805
March 2016: 4.069191
Tin Price (FY2017)
Jan 2017: Tin price USD19912
Feb 2017: Tin price USD19292
March 2017: Tin price USD20015
Average: USD 19739
Exchange Rate (2017)
From Jan 2017 to March 2017 average around 4.4465
Let's compare with last quarter
Tin price (FY2017)
Oct 2016: Tin price USD20705
Nov 2016: Tin price USD20952
Dec 2016: Tin price USD21025
Exchange Rate
Oct 2016: 4.171337
Nov 2016: 4.330558
Dec 2016: 4.456133
Based on the Tin price, I can make a conclusion that last quarter Perstim performed better;
Based on exchange rate, I make a conclusion that this quarter MYR lowerthan last quarter.
Let's say, foreign exchange plays an important role, with RM1million difference in revenue, Net profit for this quarter should be higher though. So I think foreign exchange play less important role in Perstim business.
With Sales revenue difference with RM1million, other income, lower tin price this quarter compared with last, and 20% foreign sales contributor.
I hereby conclude that Perstim's actual profit is lower than last quarter. Also their sales revenue may face some obstacle.
Share price
- SP:RM7.79 (30/6/2017), PE: 14
- Perstim released their result on 30May 2017
Share price rise after that, and pull back in large degree
- Overall Perstim is uptrend
Next quarter forecast (April 2017 to Jun 2017)
April 2017: Tin price: USD 19937
May 2017: Tin price USD 20350
Jun 2017: Tin price USD 19962
Average: USD 20083
Exchange rate
April 2017: 4.406810
May 2017: 4.319773
Jun 2017: 4.278606
Assuming that other thing remain constant,
Net profit for next quarter should be increase around RM16.2m++, and EPS 16.3sen
Given PE:13, My Reasonable Share Price: RM7.79
Reference:
http://bblifediary.blogspot.my/2016/11/perstim.html
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